Dr. Berthold M. Kuhn is a political scientist and expert in international cooperation and ethical investment, focusing on climate policies, sustainability, and global megatrends. He has held professorships at Leiden University, Tsinghua University, and Xiamen University and conducts research at Freie Universität Berlin. He has also worked for UN organizations, the European Commission, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), and various think tanks and international consulting firms. Dr. Kuhn is based in the lowcarbon city of Xiamen in South China. For inquiries, he can be reached at berthold.kuhn@tonline.de | www.innovateCo.de
Megatrends discourses are crucial as they help us understand the large-scale shifts shaping the future, offering essential insights for future thinking. By delving into these discourses, we gain valuable insights into what lies ahead and how to adapt effectively. While introspection is valuable, looking outward and acknowledging the broader changes is equally crucial, especially for the youth. Embracing these megatrends is key to fostering a pro active mindset and readiness to thrive in the ever-changing landscape.
Megatrends provide a broad view of significant transformations across various domains, from technological advancements to social and environmental shifts. These trends highlight the importance of diversity in perspectives and the necessity of interdisciplinary thinking. Embracing different viewpoints and thinking outside traditional boundaries fosters innovation and resilience, which are essential for thriving in a rapidly changing world. Knowing future trends is invaluable when deciding where and how to work and live. It guides career choices, lifestyle adjustments, and investment strategies, ensuring that individuals and organizations are well-positioned for the future.
Unlike science fiction, megatrend research is grounded in data and the consensus of multiple experts, providing a robust framework for understanding potential future scenarios. Our comprehensive methodology for addressing megatrends surpasses the approaches of some consulting firms or think tanks. We consider megatrends beyond business or consumer trends, recognizing their multifaceted impacts on our lives. This approach enables a deeper understanding of how global shifts affect personal and societal levels, from economic opportunities to social dynamics and environmental sustainability.
In 2022 we published our book “Global Perspectives on Megatrends. The Future as Seen by Analysts and Researchers from Different World Regions!”(Kuhn & Margellos, 2022). In July 2024, our Megatrends Briefing “Global Megatrends. Insights and Perspectives from China and India” will be an open-access document (please check Dimitrios’ and my LinkedIn pages).
Our motivation to work on global megatrends stemmed from our passion for understanding humanity’s challenges and opportunities in the next decade(s) and learning about new research, business models, and social movement initiatives trying to address hot topics. Translating this passion into easily digestible and well communicated writing to inform those interested in the future is at the heart of our book.
To identify megatrends, we used a pentagon model, a framework developed by Berthold Kuhn in the context of his research and teaching activities at Freie Universität Berlin. It focuses on five criteria to prioritize significant trends: (1) level of coverage by research activities, (2) level of political attention, (3) level of interest to global investors and business communities, (4) level of media coverage, and (5) attention paid by social movements.
Megatrends Spotlight: Climate Action and Sustainability in China
Forecasts indicate that more renewable energy capacity will be added worldwide in the next six years than the current total installed capacity globally, with China experiencing remarkably rapid growth. A study conducted by Roland Berger suggests that decarbonizing the 1,000 companies with the most significant CO₂ footprint could potentially reduce billions of tons of greenhouse gases. The surge in renewable energies continues unabated, with China emerging as the world’s renewable powerhouse. China’s energy authority reported a substantial increase in solar and wind energy production in the initial months of 2024. Furthermore, China aims to establish massive renewable energy plants in the deserts along the New Silk Road.
The global momentum towards climate action was palpable at COP 28, the United Nations World Climate Conference in Dubai, with a record-breaking number of around 85,000 participants. The conference delved into the critical issue of fossil fuels and was of immense significance for China. The agreement reached at COP28 emphasized the immediate need for all nations to take action to curb emissions. This message resonated with China’s greenhouse gas emissions and its respective Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) commitments, which garnered particular attention.
Trade-offs between growth and climate mitigation targets persist in China as in other countries. China emphasized its commitment to climate action but also closely followed how the US and other big economies act on climate change and how they balance their economic growth strategies with the imperative of sustainable development. The visit of China’s new special envoy for climate change, Liu Zhenmin, to the United States on May 8-9 and his discussions with the latest US climate envoy, John Podesta, focused on deploying technologies to reduce emissions from green house gases, with particular emphasis on methane.
The program takes full advantage of Beijing’s cultural and academic dimensions and its increasing role in international economics, politics, and social issues. The program includes the fundamentals of international development theory, research methodology, the workings of the global economy, and an overview of ongoing events in international development, particularly emphasizing China’s role in the international arena.
China has intensified its efforts to address methane emissions and elevate its methane mitigation ambitions. Cutting methane emissions is recognized as the swiftest means to mitigate near-term warming and uphold the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. China unveiled its Methane Emissions Control Action Plan on November 7, 2023.
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analysis and recommendations for China are noteworthy. CAT recommends that China prioritize reducing its reliance on fossil fuels, as energy consumption is projected to rise by almost 9% from now to 2030. Additionally, China should expedite decarbonizing high-emitting industrial sectors by advancing carbon-peaking timelines.
There is also a need to enhance public awareness and understanding of sustainable consumption and production, environmental protection, and climate action, beginning with integrating sustainability and low-carbon lifestyle issues into school curricula.
12 Megatrends
